AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK -- SUMMARY                             October 21, 1997
November 1997, AO-246
               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This SUMMARY is issued monthly (except January) by the Economic Research
Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788.  The
complete text of AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK will be available within 3 working 
days following this summary release.    
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WORLD TRADE TAKES CENTER STAGE 

Ag Trade: Markets and Issues

Fast-Track Authority: implications for U.S. agriculture.  Increasing access to
foreign markets is essential for a profitable and growing agricultural sector. 
Production is rising more rapidly than domestic consumption, and the value of
U.S. agricultural products sold to foreign markets has grown three times as
rapidly as domestic sales.  Comprehensively addressing agricultural trade
issues will require multilateral and regional negotiations.  Fast-track
authority would increase the effectiveness, efficiency, and speed of
negotiations.  

"Fast-track authority" enables the President to submit a trade agreement to
Congress for approval under special, expedited procedures.  The most recent
fast-track authority expired 3 years ago, after approval of implementing
legislation for the Uruguay Round (UR) agreements.  A new fast-track authority
would focus on broad World Trade Organization (WTO) issues after the UR, and
also extend to regional trade agreements.  Ron Trostle (202) 219-0020
     
Markets expanding in Southeast Asia.   The economies of Southeast Asia have
been among the world's fastest growing during the 1990's, emerging as key
markets for a wide range of U.S. agricultural commodities.  Imports from the
U.S. reached a record of almost $3.3 billion in 1996.  Underlying the increase
are new consumption patterns accompanying economic growth and urbanization;
climatic and land resource constraints on the region's agricultural sectors;
expansion of textile and leather product manufacturing; and import policy
changes.  Long-term agricultural import patterns in Southeast Asia provide a
wide range of opportunities for U.S. exporters of products made from
temperate-climate crops such as wheat, corn, soybeans, and apples.  Gary Vocke
(202) 501-5575
     
NIS and Baltics as WTO candidates.  The Baltic countries and 10 of the 12
Newly Independent States (NIS) of the former Soviet Union have begun the
application process to join the World Trade Organization.  Since these
countries are high-cost producers of agricultural goods, particularly
livestock and other high-value products, U.S. agriculture could benefit from
their accession through increased exports.  More generally, the main benefit
both to the acceding countries and to their trade partners would be to
restrain growing protectionist pressure which, if unchecked, could impede
growth in NIS and Baltic trade.  Before accession, several problematic issues
must be addressed--e.g., state trading activities, food safety and product
standards, and the level of  domestic support to the farm sector.  William
Liefert (202) 219-0656 

State Trading Enterprises: Their Role As Importers

For many countries, the creation of a central agency, or state trading
enterprise (STE), to handle domestic procurement and to plan import needs is
perceived as essential to the achievement of government policies such as
assurance of abundant, low-cost food supplies and stable farm prices.  Such
import-oriented STE's often have considerable power to control access to
domestic markets.  


WTO member-countries committed in the Uruguay Round to increase access for
imported commodities and to reduce support for agricultural producers. 
However, trading partners have expressed concern that lack of transparency in
the operations of STE importers makes it difficult to determine whether STE
importers actually restrict trade and the extent to which they subsidize
domestic agricultural producers.  STE's in Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and
Mexico--all countries whose governments control imports of important staple
commodities--are among the largest enterprises that can be classed as STE
importers.  State trading practices will become increasingly important as
countries with centrally planned economies or countries in the process of
privatizing their agricultural production and marketing apply for membership
in the WTO.  Karen Ackerman (202) 501-8511

Carrots and Cranberries: Popularity Growing

Carrots finding increased favor among U.S. consumers.  In the 1990's, per
capita use of fresh-market carrots has averaged 25 percent above the average
of the 1980's, while use of carrots for freezing is up 30 percent during the
same period.  Carrots are popular as snacks, side dishes, salad ingredients,
juice mixtures, and dessert ingredients  (e.g., carrot cake).  Fresh-cut and
peeled carrots have been credited as the primary driving force in the growth
of the carrot industry.  As a result of increased demand, both domestic
production and imports have soared in recent years.  After a decade as a net
exporter of fresh carrots, the U.S. has become a net importer.  Gary Lucier
(202) 219-0117
     
Cranberry production rises to meet demand.  Traditionally eaten only with
holiday turkeys, cranberries are now consumed year round in the U.S.,
purchased as fresh berries, sauce, juice, and dried fruit.  With growing
demand and higher prices, production has increased, and the structure of the
domestic industry has begun to change with the entry of new firms.  Along with
increased demand, environmental constraints on U.S. growing areas have
propelled the search for new production areas in nontraditional locations. 
U.S. cranberry average annual production increased 88 percent from the period
1975-79 to 1992-96.  Over the same time span, harvested acreage increased 36
percent to a record 34,200 acres in 1996.  Increased consumer demand,
competition among processors to acquire an adequate supply of cranberries, and
low beginning stocks produced record prices in 1996, despite near-record
production.  Linda Calvin (202) 501-8449

Multiple Jobholding Among Rural Workers

In 1996, 1.7 million rural workers in the U.S. held two or more jobs, a rate
of 7.1 percent compared with 6.2 percent of urban workers.  About one in five
rural workers employed in farming, forestry, and fishing held more than one
job, and among all rural workers who held more than one job, the largest
percentage of second jobs was in farming, forestry, and fishing occupations
(19 percent).  About 37 percent of rural moonlighters were self-employed in
their second jobs, with the largest share in service industries.  The highest
overall rural multiple jobholding rates in 1996 were found in the North
Central region, perhaps because of the region's high proportion of lower
paying jobs and the large number of jobs in farming, forestry, and fishing. 
Net outmigration and low unemployment rates in many rural areas in these
states have also provided more opportunity for workers to take second jobs. 
Tim Parker (202) 219-0541

For further information call Randy Schnepf (202) 219-1281, Anne Effland (202)
501-8448 or Joel  Greene (202) 219-0649.  

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   Table 1.  Key Statistical Indicators of the Food and Fiber Sector

                                            1996                          1997 

                                           -----        ----------------------
                                          Annual         I        II     III F 


  Prices received by farmers (1990-92=100)   112       107       108       108 
    Livestock & products                      99        98        99        99 
    Crops                                    126       115       127       115 


  Prices paid by farmers, (1990-92=100)
    Production items                         115       113       115       117 
    Commodities & services, interest,        115       116       117       116 
     taxes, & wages

  Cash receipts ($ bil.) 1/                  202        --        --        -- 
    Livestock ($ bil.)                        93        --        --        -- 
    Crops ($ bil.)                           109        --        --        -- 

  Market basket (1982-84=100)
    Retail cost                              156       160       159        -- 
    Farm value                               111       107       107        -- 
    Spread                                   180       188       187        -- 
    Farm value/retail cost (%)                25        24        24        -- 

  Retail prices (1982-84=100)
    All food                                 153       157       157       158 
      At home                                154       158       158       158 
      Away from home                         153       156       156       157 

  Agricultural exports ($ bil.) 2/          59.8      14.9      13.2        -- 
  Agricultural imports ($ bil.) 2/          32.4       9.1       9.3        -- 

  Commercial production
    Red meat (mil. lb.)                   43,135    10,458    10,655    10,958 
    Poultry (mil. lb.)                    32,289     7,986     8,491     8,450 
    Eggs (mil. doz.)                       6,358     1,587     1,591     1,605 
    Milk (bil. lb.)                        154.3      38.9      40.6      38.8 

  Consumption, per capita
    Red meat and poultry (lb.)             209.2      49.7      52.2      53.5 

  Corn beginning stock (mil. bu.) 3/     1,557.8     425.9   6,903.7   4,494.1 
  Corn use (mil. bu.) 3/                 8,522.3   2,819.1   2,411.9   2,001.3 

  Prices 4/
    Choice steers--Neb. Direct ($/cwt)     65.21     66.40     66.63     65.65 
    Barrows & gilts--IA, So. MN ($/cwt)    53.39     51.06     56.41     54.45 
    Broilers--12-city (cts./lb.)            61.2      60.0      59.1      62.0 
    Eggs--NY gr. A large (cts./doz.)        88.2      84.9      72.1      79.7 
    Milk--all at plant ($/cwt)             14.87     13.47     12.93     12.63 
                                                                               

  Wheat--KC HRW ordinary ($/bu.)            5.48      4.57      4.49      3.76 
  Corn--Chicago ($/bu.)                     3.87      2.86      2.86      2.64 
  Soybeans--Chicago ($/bu.)                 7.53      7.74      8.54      7.19 
  Cotton--Avg. spot 41-34 (cts./lb.)       77.93     70.73     69.81    71.40



                                            1989      1990      1991      1992 
                                           -----------------------------------
  Farm real estate values 5/,6/
    Nominal ($ per acre)                     668       683       703       713 
    Real (1982 $)                            539       528       521       507 


  1/ Quarterly data seasonally adjusted at annual rates.  2/ Annual data based 
on Oct.-Sept. fiscal years ending with year indicated.  3/ Sept.-Nov. first 
quarter; Dec.-Feb. second quarter; Mar.-May third quarter; Jun.-Aug. fourth 
quarter; Sept.-Aug. annual.  Use includes exports & domestic disappearance.  
4/ Simple averages, Jan.-Dec.  5/ 1990-94 values as of January 1.  1986-89
values as of February 1.  6/ The 1989-94 values are revised based on the 1992 
Census of Agriculture.  
F = forecast, -- = not available.

...................................................................continued


........................................................continued (new page)

        1997                      1998          
-------------------      -----------------------
    IV F  Annual F       I F      II F  Annual F

      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --


      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --


      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --


      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --


     158       158       161       161       162
     158       158       162       162       162
     159       157       160       161       162

      --      56.5        --        --      58.5
      --      36.0        --        --      38.0


  10,835    42,906    10,677    10,820    43,812
   8,450    33,377     8,530     8,940    35,460
   1,655     6,438     1,605     1,615     6,580
    38.2     156.6      39.2      40.8     157.1


    53.7     209.1      52.5      53.7     216.1

 2,496.6     425.9     884.0        --        --
 1,616.0   8,848.4        --        --        --


   67-69     66.67     69-75     71-77     70-76
   47-49     52.48     45-49     46-50     45-49
   57-59      59.8     56-60     58-62     57-62
   81-85      79.9     72-78     67-73     72-78
  13.90-    13.25-    13.10-    12.00-    12.75-
   14.30     13.35     13.80     13.00     13.65
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --
      --        --        --        --        --



    1993      1994      1995      1996      1997
------------------------------------------------

     736       782       832       890       942
     511       529       550       574       596

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